LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY MAPS OF CANIK (SAMSUN) DISTRICT USING BAYESIAN PROBABILITY MODEL AND FREQUENCY RATIO METHOD

Halil AKINCI, Sedat DOĞAN, Cem KILIÇOĞLU

Abstract


Landslides cause serious damage to infrastructure and property in many cities of Turkey, as well as the loss of life. Samsun is one of the cities where landslides are most frequently seen in Turkey. Most of the landslides occurred throughout the province, especially within the Atakum, Canik and İlkadım districts, have been described as natural disaster. In this study, the aim was to produce landslide susceptibility maps for one of these highly sensitive districts, Canik. For this purpose, the parameters of slope, aspect, altitude, topographic wetness index, profile and plan curvature, lithology, distance to drainage network and roads have been used in the landslide susceptibility analysis. Bayesian Probability (BP) and frequency ratio (FR) models have been used in the study. The areas in the produced susceptibility maps have been classified into five groups as “very low, low, moderate, high and very high susceptible”. The verification and control results revealed that the landslide susceptibility map generated using the BP model is more accurate than the FR model. At the same time, the very high and high susceptible areas in the landslide susceptibility map produced by BP model were compatible with the control landslides with a rate of 83.5%. These results indicated that the landslide susceptibility map generated using the BP model can be used for land use planning and landslide risk reduction studies.


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